VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION'S PRIMARIES FOR 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

The Inter-American Dialogue published several responses to their question on the upcoming Venezuelan opposition’s primaries for the 2024 presidential elections. Implicit in all the responses, other than mine, is that the only way Maduro can win in 2024 is through fraud. I argue that a Maduro election in fair elections is feasible given the degree of disillusionment among opposition voters and the acute divisions within the opposition.

Steve Ellner on Venezuelan Opposition’s October Primaries

Latin America Advisor, publication of the Inter-American Dialogue

June 22, 2023

Latin America Advisor Question: Venezuelan opposition candidates on June 6 officially began entering the race in hopes of unseating President Nicolás Maduro, who has ruled the country for a decade. So far, about 10 candidates have expressed intentions to run in the opposition’s Oct. 22 primary, the Associated Press reported. Who are the most important opposition candidates to watch? How much of a chance do opposition candidates have against Maduro, who was last elected in 2018 in a vote internationally derided as fraudulent?

Ellner: Since the 2018 presidential elections, Venezuelan politics - like the voting population as a whole - has been characterized by three fairly well-defined blocs: the Chavistas; the hardline opposition consisting of the “G4” and other parties that until recently recognized Juan Guaidó as president; and emerging opposition groups that have rejected the strategy of electoral boycotts. Until now, nearly all the candidates for the October primaries belong to the second category, including María Corina Machado, Henrique Capriles, Andrés Velásquez, and Manuel Rosales. But a survey by Datincorp shows that 70% of Venezuelans are disillusioned with politicians, while 47% prefer an independent candidate and 30% a candidate of one of the new parties. Given this trifurcation, the 2024 elections may well follow the pattern of those of 1963, 1968 and 1993 when presidents won with less than 33% of the vote. Hence, it is virtually impossible to predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential elections. The division within the opposition goes way beyond personality disputes and personal ambition. Third category leaders, unlike the “hardliners,” roundly condemn the U.S.-imposed sanctions on Venezuela and lash out at the corruption scandal involving the Guaidó-administered Colombian-based Monómeros company and the mishandling of CITGO, which is on the verge of being seized by creditors. Some opposition leaders, such as Bernabé Gutiérrez of Acción Democrática’s split-off faction and a coalition that includes Timoteo Zambrano, will participate in the presidential elections but not the October primaries, while Fuerza Vecinal is internally divided over the matter. In short, it is unlikely that the opposition’s unity that ensured its triumph in the 2015 General Assembly elections will be achieved in 2024. The outcome of those contests is anyone’s guess.