Friday, August 28, 2020

La estrategia de Trump hacia Venezuela ha sido un desastre. ¿Qué va a hacer ahora Washington?

Joe Biden como presidente no va a cambiar las premisas básicas de la política exterior de Trump porque hay un consenso entre los Republicanos y Demócratas que EEUU tiene el derecho de intervenir, en todos sentidos de la palabra, en los asuntos internos de otros países (pero no viceversa, como en el caso del escándalo sobre la intervención rusa en las elecciones de 2016). Sin embargo, hay indicaciones que bajo Biden la intervención norteamericana contra Venezuela va a ser menos descarada. Eso no quiere decir que la politica exterior en general de Biden va a ser mejor que la de Trump, y mucho menos que va a ser "progresista"

 

Consortium News

por Steve Ellner 

El senador del Partido Demócrata norteamericano Chris Murphy recientemente caracterizó la política de su país hacia Venezuela como un desastre absoluto, dejando claro que el orden político establecido en Washington reconoce la necesidad de un cambio de estrategia. La declaración hecha por un senador del Partido Demócrata tan influyente como Murphy, pudiera apuntar a una revisión de la política hacia Venezuela, aunque no sea particularmente profunda, por parte de un gobierno demócrata liderado por Joe Biden.

Murphy dirigió esos comentarios al “Representante Especial para Venezuela” Elliott Abrams en su comparecencia ante la Comisión de Relaciones Exteriores del senado. Aseveró que la disensión dentro de la oposición venezolana amenaza la posición de liderazgo del “presidente” auto-proclamado Juan Guaidó. Murphy preguntó a Abrams: “¿Juan Guaidó va a ser para Trump el líder reconocido de Venezuela de manera permanente, aunque cambien las condiciones en ese país?” Esa fue una buena pregunta porque el éxito de la estrategia de Trump hacia Venezuela está supeditado al liderazgo indiscutible de Guaidó. Trump no tiene un plan B.  

Washington ha empleado todos los recursos disponibles para lograr el reconocimiento internacional de Guaidó desde su autoproclamación el 23 de enero de 2019, así como lo ha hecho para socavar la autoridad de Nicolás Maduro. Pero los esfuerzos por remover a Maduro del poder han fracasado uno tras otro, incluyendo una intentona de golpe de estado el 30 de abril de 2019 y la incursión militar desde Colombia el mayo de este año. Inclusive Trump ha admitido que Guaidó (un inexperto político que recientemente cumplió 37 años de edad) no ha tenido la talla para esta misión. Murphy dijo en la audiencia de la comisión del senado “nuestra gran jugada de reconocer a Guaidó de entrada simplemente no funcionó”.

Sin embargo, si nos dejamos llevar sólo por las acciones provenientes de Washington, podríamos pensar que ha ocurrido todo lo contrario, que Guaidó está a punto de tumbar a Maduro. Cada dos o tres días, el gobierno de Trump, empeñado en obtener algún éxito llamativo que pueda luego convertirse en votos para las elecciones presidenciales de noviembre, intensifica la guerra contra Venezuela, a la que considera un blanco más vulnerable que Irán. El 14 de agosto Trump se jactó de que EEUU obligó a cuatro tanqueros procedentes de Irán, con ruta hacia Venezuela, dirigirse a Houston.

El mismo día, un portavoz del Departamento de Estado resaltó el éxito de la “campaña máxima de presión” hacia Venezuela en la cual “más y más flotas de transporte globales están evitando el comercio Irán-Venezuela debido a nuestras sanciones”, las cuales están siendo usadas actualmente para amenazar compañías navieras, compañías de seguro, y capitanes de barco, entre otros.

La persistente esperanza de Washington es que la situación de Venezuela va a ir de mal a peor. Así lo planteó el asesor del Departamento de Estado Evan Ellis en su informe titulado “Venezuela: la pandemia y la intervención extranjera en un narco-estado colapsado”. Ellis indicó que “El Covid-19 ahora promete transformar la crisis venezolana en una crisis de mayor envergadura”. Agregó que “la sentencia a muerte por esa enfermedad puede ser la última gota que desmorone la disciplina de los militares y otras fuerzas de seguridad”.

Los argumentos de Murphy: los buenos y los malos

Los argumentos de Murphy en la audiencia del senado fueron pragmáticos, no principistas. Su posición en cuanto a que la estrategia de Trump no haya dado resultado sugiere la posibilidad de un distanciamiento entre un posible Presidente Biden y Guaidó. La posición de Murphy tiene implicaciones positivas y negativas. Es positiva por cuanto viene de un partido (el Partido Demócrata) cuyos líderes principales aplaudieron apasionadamente la presencia de Guaidó en el discurso (“State of the Union Address”) de Trump ante el congreso en febrero.

La decisión de dejar de reconocer a Guaidó como “presidente”, por parte de un Presidente Biden, sería un reconocimiento tácito que Washington había errado al entregar mil millones de dólares de activos venezolanos incluyendo CITGO al gobierno paralelo de Guaidó. Esto no es una equivocación cualquiera. El papel activista del gobierno de Trump al tratar de convencer a otros países, organizaciones y corporaciones – incluyendo Rusia, China, Cuba y, aunque usted no lo crea, Irán – de acatar las sanciones contra Venezuela prácticamente no tiene precedente en la historia. El argumento de Washington en favor de las sanciones está sostenido por el argumento de que Guaidó, y no Maduro, es el presidente legítimo de Venezuela. Un distanciamiento de Washington hacia Guaidó restaría valor a esta campaña y socavaría el prestigio norteamericano, al menos a corto plazo.  

Murphy, hay que reconocerle, manifiesta que la oposición en Venezuela está fuertemente dividida. El gobierno de Trump califica la corriente anti-Guaidó como una banda de políticos delincuentes, algunos de los cuales han sido sancionados por Washington. Pero recientemente, la jerarquía de la Iglesia Católica, la cual ha opuesta tenazmente a Maduro y su predecesor Hugo Chávez, criticó firmemente al bloque pro-Guaidó por rechazar la participación en las elecciones parlamentarias programadas para diciembre. El 11 de agosto, la Conferencia Episcopal Venezolana emitió un documento que dijo que el abstencionismo “hará crecer la fractura político-social en el país y la desesperanza ante el futuro”.  En otro acontecimiento reciente, Enrique Mendoza del partido social cristiano COPEI agregó su nombre a una lista de políticos veteranos que están participando en las elecciones de diciembre. Mendoza declaró “la abstención no ayuda a nada, te haces cómplice y te pones a favor del contrincante. COPEI va a participar”. Los medios de comunicación corporativos norteamericanos dicen poco acerca de este tipo de noticia que desacredita a Guaidó y sus aliados, como también a la posición de la Casa Blanca.

 

La verdadera lección

 

Pero la posición del Senador Murphy pasa por alto los verdaderos asuntos de la política fracasada de Trump hacia Venezuela, como también las lecciones de ese fracaso, específicamente la importancia del respeto a la soberanía nacional de los países no alineados. En vez de abordar este asunto, Murphy criticó a Abrams y Trump por no haber sido más inteligentes en su esfuerzo de tratar de lograr el “cambio del régimen”. Murphy dijo a Abrams “Nosotros podríamos haber usado el reconocimiento diplomático o la amenaza de imponer sanciones a nuestra ventaja”, como también consultar a nuestros aliados europeos y “entablar conversaciones o neutralizar a China y Rusia” en una etapa inicial. En fin, “nosotros jugamos todas nuestras cartas el primer día, y eso no dio resultado”.  

Glenn Greenwald, quien recibió el premio Pulitzer para el periodismo, atacó el argumento de Murphy en favor de la hegemonía norteamericana, al decir “Murphy estaba furioso que EEUU bajo Trump perdiera su ‘derecho natural’ de controlar quien gobierna a Venezuela”.

El asunto de la soberanía nacional se manifiesta en el debate entre la tendencia pro y anti Guaidó de la oposición venezolana, un choque que los medios norteamericanos también ignoran. La fracción anti-Guaidó ha empezado a identificarse con la bandera de la soberanía nacional. Miguel Salazar, presidente de una de las dos fracciones del partido conservador COPEI, recientemente aseveró (en palabras de El Universal) “la comunidad internacional ha exacerbado la conflictividad… la resolución de los problemas es venezolana y no pasa por directrices de los Estados Unidos”.

China y Rusia, los dos adversarios norteamericanos más poderosos, defienden la bandera de la soberanía nacional en sus pronunciamientos sobre Venezuela, y así se realza la imagen de ambos países, sobre todo en el Tercer Mundo. Al mismo tiempo, EEUU se encuentra cada vez más aislado internacionalmente, como se evidenció hace poco con la derrota humillante en el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU, cuando Washington contó solamente con el voto de la República Dominicana en su propuesta para reanudar el boicot de la venta de armas a Irán. Aunque es muy poco probable que un Presidente Biden vaya a hacer un cambio de 180 grados en la política de Trump hacia Venezuela, una modificación del activismo intervencionista de Trump ayudaría a ese país a aliviar los agudos problemas económicos y políticos que enfrenta y reduciría la creciente pérdida de prestigio de Washington a nivel mundial.  

* Artículo traducido al español con la ayuda de Carmen Sánchez de Ellner y Michelle Ellner

Steve Ellner, es profesor jubilado de la Universidad de Oriente (Venezuela), y actualmente Editor Asociado de la revista académica Latin American Perspectives. Es editor de Latin America’s Pink Tide: Breakthroughs and Shortcomings (2020) y Latin American Extractivism: Dependency, Resource Nationalism and Resistance in Broad Perspective (2021).

https://rebelion.org/que-va-a-hacer-ahora-washington/

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Latin American Extractivism: Dependency, Resource Nationalism and Resistance in Broad Perspective

Rowman & Littlefield will be publishing my edited LATIN AMERICAN EXTRACTIVISM: DEPENDENCY, RESOURCE NATIONALISM AND RESISTANCE IN BROAD PERSPECTIVE by the end of the year. Here is a brief description of the book: 

This book explores different aspects of Latin America’s extractivist economies and argues that on issues such as legislation and policies toward foreign capital and small-scale mining, economic ties with China, environmental destruction and indigenous rights, Latin American governments had different records. In doing so, the book takes issue with a school of writers referred to as “neo-extractivism,” who tend to minimize the importance of differences between Pink Tide progressive governments, conservative ones and those on the right on grounds that all of them have submitted themselves to the dictates of global capital. Several chapters look at cultural patterns involving gender, ethnicity and class that lay behind protests in opposition to extractivist projects as well as the contrast in responses from state actors to those movements. The book also compares the impact of strategies toward economic development as they relate to extractivism and analyzes the role of the state in promoting economic growth and its theoretical implications. In emphasizing resource nationalism, the book attempts to refute a basic precept of neo-extractivism writers that a “consensus” existed among Latin American governments on extractivism. The book argues that there may have been a consensus regarding the beneficial nature of extractivist industries, but not on how to maximize the revenue derived from extractivism, and how to put it to good use.

https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538141564/Latin-American-Extractivism-Dependency-Resource-Nationalism-and-Resistance-in-Broad-Perspective?fbclid=IwAR3R_I6G_FUB8Iu0Sg7j7Wq04wqVocl_kLiS6qgkWZT_Bq-ib0f1480S0zM


Monday, August 17, 2020

The Juan Guaidó Strategy Has Proven to be a Fiasco. Now What will Washington Do?

Consortium News 

                   by Steve Ellner

 Connecticut senator Chris Murphy's recent characterization of U.S. policy toward Venezuela as an "unmitigated disaster" makes it conspicuously clear that many in the political establishment recognize the need for a change in course. The statement by such an influential Democrat may signal a policy revision toward Venezuela, though not particularly comprehensive, on the part of a Joe Biden administration.

Murphy, who made his remarks to Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams at a Foreign Relations Committee hearing, pointed out that dissension within the Venezuelan opposition threatens the leadership of self-proclaimed “president” Juan Guaidó. Murphy asked Abrams "Is Juan Guaidó [for the Trump administration] going to be the recognized leader of Venezuela permanently, no matter how conditions change on the ground?” The question was a good one because the success of Trump’s Venezuela strategy is predicated on Guaidó’s continued undisputed leadership. There’s no fall-back strategy.

Since Guaidó’s self-proclamation on January 23, 2019, Washington has gone all out to gain world-wide recognition for him and to undermine President Nicolás Maduro’s grip on power. But regime change attempts have turned into folly one after another, including a U.S.-backed military coup attempt on April 30, 2019 and a military incursion from Colombia this May. Even Trump admitted that the politically untested Guaidó (who just turned 37) has not been up to the task. Murphy stated at the senate committee hearing “our big play recognizing Guaidó right out of the gate…just didn’t work.”

Yet one would think from the words and actions coming out of the White House that just the opposite was happening, that Guaidó was on the verge of toppling Maduro. Every couple of days the Trump administration, eager for a resounding success to be parlayed into votes in November, escalates its war on Venezuela which it considers to be a more vulnerable target than Iran. On August 14, Trump boasted that four oil tankers en route from Iran to Venezuela were forced by the U.S. to proceed to Houston. The same day a State Department spokesman touted the success of its “maximum pressure campaign” in which “more and more global shipping fleets [are] avoiding the Iran-Venezuela trade due to our sanctions,” which are now being used to threaten shipping companies, insurance companies and ship captains, among others.

Washington’s lingering hope is undoubtedly that the situation in Venezuela will go from bad to worse. This was alluded to by think-tank analyst and State Department advisor Evan Ellis in his report Venezuela: Pandemic and Foreign Intervention in a Collapsing Narcostate.” Ellis points out that “Covid-19 now promises to transform the Venezuelan crisis into a broader one.” He adds “the death sentence implied by the disease could be the final straw in disintegrating the remaining discipline of the military and other security forces.” 

Murphy’s Arguments Good and Bad

Murphy’s arguments at the senate hearing were pragmatic not principled. His position that Trump’s Venezuelan strategy hasn’t worked suggests the possibility of a distancing of a President Biden from Guaidó. Murphy’s stand has positive and negative implications. Positive because it comes from a party whose main leaders zealously applauded Guaidó's presence at Trump’s State of the Union address in February. (Remember Nancy Pelosi standing up and clapping, in contrast to her reaction to almost everything else Trump said that evening.)

The decision to cease calling Guaidó “president” would be a tacit recognition that Washington had blundered in turning over billions of dollars in Venezuelan assets including CITGO to Guaidó’s parallel government. This is no small failure. The activist role of the Trump administration in trying to get other countries, organizations and corporations including Russia, China, Cuba and, believe it or not, Iran to comply with the sanctions against Venezuela has few parallels in history. Washington’s case for sanctions is underpinned by the argument that Guaidó and not Maduro is the rightful president of Venezuela. A distancing from Guaidó would detract from this campaign and undermine U.S. prestige, at least in the short run.

Murphy, to his credit, recognized that the opposition in Venezuela is bitterly divided. The Trump administration dismisses the opposition's anti-Guaidó bloc as consisting of rogue politicians, some of whom it has hit with sanctions. But recently, the Catholic Church hierarchy, which has vehemently opposed Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chávez, sharply criticized the pro-Guaidó bloc for refusing to participate in parliamentary elections slated for December. On August 11, the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference issued a document which stated “abstentionism deepens the social-political fissure in the nation and the lack of hope toward the future.” In another recent development, Enrique Mendoza of the social Christian COPEI party became the latest in a list of long-standing political leaders who are participating in the December elections. The U.S. media says little of news items like this one which discredit Guaidó and his allies. 

The Real Lesson

But Murphy’s position is a far cry from addressing the real issues and the lessons that need to be learned from the Guaidó fiasco, namely the importance of respect for national sovereignty. Rather than facing the issue, Murphy rebuked Abrams and Trump for not being more intelligent in trying to achieve regime change. The senator told Abrams “We could have used the prospect of U.S. recognition or sanctions as leverage” and could have done more to consult our European allies and to “talk to or neutralize China and Russia” at an early stage. In short, “all we did was play all our cards on day one, and it didn’t work.”

Pulitzer prize winning journalist Glenn Greenwald slammed Murphy’s line of reasoning in defense of U.S. hegemony, saying “Murphy was ‘furious’ that America under Trump lost is ‘natural right’ to control who governs Venezuela.”
The issue of national sovereignty is manifesting itself in Venezuela in the debate between the pro and anti-Guaidó opposition factions, a development the U.S. media is also oblivious to. The anti-Guaidó faction has taken
up the national sovereignty banner. Miguel Salazar, president of the conservative COPEI party, recently stated (in the words of El Universal) “the international community has exacerbated the [Venezuelan] conflict even though the resolution of problems has to be in Venezuelan (hands) and not subject to the guidelines of the United States.” 

The banner of national sovereignty is being raised by Washington’s two major adversaries on the world stage, China and Russia, in their pronouncements on Venezuela in a way that enhances their international reputation. Indeed, the United States is increasingly finding itself isolated on the world stage, as made evident in last Friday’s humiliating defeat at the UN Security Council where the U.S. counted only on the vote of the Dominican Republic for its proposed renewal of the boycott on arms sales to Iran. Although it is highly unlikely that a President Biden will do a complete turnaround on Venezuelan policy, a more hands-off approach would go a long way in easing tensions in that nation and achieving for Washington a degree of respect around the world.

 https://consortiumnews.com/2020/08/17/what-is-next-for-washington-after-its-failed-venezuela-strategy/?fbclid=IwAR3JRXTL68grbvcl9QHwP-Aq_CpAbbBio-txDVKZ4O_xZtEI269iS6A_Bsw

Steve Ellner, a retired professor at the Universidad de Oriente (Venezuela), is currently an Associate Managing Editor of Latin American Perspectives. He is the editor of Latin America’s Pink Tide: Breakthroughs and Shortcomings (2020) and Latin American Extractivism: Dependency, Resource Nationalism and Resistance in Broad Perspective (to be released).

Friday, August 14, 2020

The Need for a Nuanced Analysis of Latin America's "Pink Tide" Experience

 Frederick Mills review of my edited book “Latin America’s Pink Tide: Breakthroughs and Shortcomings” reviewed by Frederick Mill in the Summer issue of New Politics. Mills points out that a nuanced analysis of the Pink Tide experience needs to take into account the context in which errors were committed. That context included a veritable war on Venezuela, nearly from the outset of the Chávez presidency: coup attempts, street violence, economic sabotage, media misinformation and biased reporting and, needless to say, it’s only gotten worse in recent years. That said, the errors need to be recognized and objectively analyzed.

 

Walking the Tightrope: Latin America’s Pink Tide

By: Frederick B. Mills

Summer 2020 (New Politics, Vol. XVIII, No. 1, Whole Number 69)

 

“Latin America’s Pink Tide: Breakthroughs and Shortcomings”
Steve Ellner, editor; Foreword by Boaventura de Sousa Santos
Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2020. 355 pp.

Latin America’s Pink Tide: Breakthroughs and Shortcomings, edited by economic historian and prominent Latin Americanist Steve Ellner, offers a critical ethical theoretical framework for assessing the performance of left and left-of-center governments in Latin America during the Pink Tide. The “Pink Tide” refers to the wave of progressive governments beginning with the election of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela in 1998. These progressive governments provided alternatives to the neoliberal economic model that had brought growing economic and social inequality, austerity, privatization of public resources, and political subordination to Washington to most of the region during the last two decades of the twentieth century. Pink Tide governments were brought to power by widespread disillusion with traditional political parties and were buoyed by social movements that sought economic and social justice and more democratic participation in the political life of their nations.

The Pink Tide brought a period of economic nationalism, progress toward regional integration, and the inclusion, in various degrees, of formerly marginalized constituents in democratic procedures. Millions were lifted out of poverty through state-sponsored social programs, though without breaking free of rentier capitalism and therefore without achieving the significant structural change necessary for sustainable economic development.

By 2015, with the cumulative impact of the world financial crisis that began in 2008 and the drop in commodity prices upon which many Pink Tide governments were dependent, one progressive government after another suffered electoral defeat by right-wing parties seeking the restoration of the neoliberal regime in partnership with Washington. These setbacks gave rise to a period of critical reflection on the shortcomings that debilitated left and center-left governments alike.

 

Eduardo Gudynas, a leading Uruguayan scholar on buen vivir,1 has argued that the progressive regimes under consideration have evolved into a heterodox form of governance. This means that they have combined progressive and regressive tendencies. They were originally propelled to power by the popular sectors, as in the cases of Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. Having secured leadership positions in the liberal democratic state, they wrest a degree of power from traditional elites, take more control over natural resources, redistribute rents, facilitate new forms of participatory democracy, recognize, to varying degrees, indigenous and Afro-descendent rights, and are anti-imperialist, insisting on national independence and regional integration. But over-reliance on hydrocarbon extraction in these South American nations has led to some regressive tendencies:

This progressive framework suffered (and suffers) enormous tensions. Progressivism encourages and protects development based on extractivisms, whose serious environmental and social impacts increasingly generate conflicts with local communities, including farmers and indigenous people. Progressive [governments] are unable to exercise more control over these ventures, since they need part of that surplus. They are governments that on the one hand try to regulate capital but on the other hand yield to this [economic model].2

As political scientist Massimo Modonesi points out, such regressive tendencies within progressive governments, in combination with a regrouping of conservative forces, can lead to concessions to capital that undermine the long-term socialist project and sideline popular participation in governance.3

Are the reversals in the region, starting around 2013, due to an inevitable cyclic historical movement that alternates between conservative and progressive institutions and practices? Has the inevitable insertion of rentier economies in the global capital system prevented the advance toward economic development? Did progressive governments take full advantage of propitious moments to advance structural economic reforms? Or did they succumb to pressures from the right to make regressive concessions that curtailed popular participation in governance and left them vulnerable to a conservative restoration?

Latin America’s Pink Tide provides us with the theoretical tools to critically inform our attempts to answer these questions. Rather than see the dynamics of the Pink Tide governments in relation to right-wing restorations as the result of deterministic cycles, each reading takes a more nuanced approach by taking into account the economic and political context of specific countries and the balance of forces at critical junctures. Here we will unpack the theoretical framework used throughout this edited work, with a focus on four exemplary essays.

Theoretical Framework

Although the essays in this reader cover a variety of left and center-left governments of the Pink Tide, the authors apply the same basic theoretical framework to each country. The breakthroughs and shortcomings in each case are viewed as a function of the pragmatic measures adopted by the left or left-of-center governments to accommodate an often hostile domestic and transnational opposition. The pragmatic measures were taken in order to avoid economic boycotts and destabilization. At the same time, Pink Tide governments also adopted populist measures to fulfill the governments’ promises of social investment and political inclusion of the popular sectors. This framework suggests a correlation between the degree of hostility of the opposition and the shortcomings of both the pragmatic measures and populist measures. It is like walking a tightrope. On the one side of the balance, the pragmatic accommodation of dominant sectors often fails to neutralize an implacable opposition, and on the other side, populism, without cracking down on corruption, tends to lend itself to clientelism and bureaucratism in the implementation of social programs. Both the pragmatic and populist measures, however, give rise to shortcomings whose corrections are feasible during times when the government has the upper hand over the opposition. This is what Ellner refers to as the element of timing.

This theoretical framework of dynamic tension between pragmatic and populist responses to the opposition is further determined by the inability of Pink Tide governments to move away from rentier capitalism, which embeds the economy in the global capital system and subjects these economies to the contingencies of commodity booms and busts. Rentier capitalism also comes into conflict with efforts to democratize institutions both inside and outside the state because it lends itself to top-down management of the economy, what some of the authors refer to as techno-bureaucratic statism.

Again, context and timing are all-important features of the theoretical framework employed in this reader. Ellner takes issue with neoextractivists who fault Pink Tide governments with the failure to diversify the economy and move toward import substitution but do not recognize the important differences between neoliberalism and neoextractivism. As Ellner points out, the Pink Tide governments, as opposed to neoliberal regimes, strengthened the role of the state in strategic industry sectors, advanced a more nationalistic foreign policy, and deployed a significant portion of rents for social programs. So while rentier capitalism does not give rise to structural change, progressive governments, to varying degrees, promoted “popular participation in decision making and the incorporation and empowerment of excluded sectors of the population” (9).

In addition, Ellner’s theoretical framework views the dynamic between the progressive government and reactionary opposition not only in terms of the constituted power of the state versus its adversaries on the right, but also in terms of class struggle. Even when progressives are in the executive branch of government, elites still occupy “apparatuses” of power and compete with “power centers” representing popular aspirations. It is the mobilizing capacity of social movements that can both pressure the state to advance the process of change and resist challenges from the right to extract more concessions from, or overthrow, the government. Pink Tide governments, therefore, alienate the popular sectors and fail to democratize state institutions at their own peril.

Walking the Tightrope: Doing Too Much Versus Doing Too Little

In “Walking the ‘Tightrope’ of Socialist Governance,” Marcel Nelson enriches the theoretical framework with a more detailed discussion of Nicos Poulantzas’ strategic relational theory. Basically, Poulantzas points out that while a progressive government may attain control over one branch of government, it may be faced with opposition not only from outside, but also from “power apparatuses” within the state that represent the interests of the dominant classes.

“When it comes to the ‘democratic road to socialism,’” says Nelson, “governing from the left is likened to ‘walking a tightrope’ between pursuing transformative programs while managing challenges from dominant classes that retain their structural power” (60). Nelson applies these insights to three Pink Tide governments: Ecuador, Bolivia, and Venezuela. He uses the image of the tightrope as an allegory for the balancing act required in each case between a government doing too much, thereby provoking the dominant classes to violent reaction, or doing too little, by over-accommodating the dominant sectors. In the latter case, the government runs the risk of alienating the very popular sectors who provide the lifeline of potential popular mobilization by means of which these governments can possibly push back against the reactionary tide and advance, at propitious moments, the socialist project.

Nelson also points to a tension between the statist tendency toward centralization and the more horizontally organized expressions of popular power. In each case, rentier capitalism, which embeds governments over-reliant on extractive industries in the global capital system, requires democratization of the state and strong links to popular power if they are to advance a social project. This involves negotiating the tightrope without falling into techno-bureaucratic statism, on the one hand, or provoking destabilization by the dominant classes on the other.

Nelson gives a few examples. In the case of Ecuador under Rafael Correa and the Alianza Pais (AP), Nelson maintains that the government opted for a statist redistribution of extractive-industry rents and minimized the inclusion of popular movements within state institutions, missing opportunities to create democratic “centers of power” within the state. Instead, Correa forged strategic alliances with the dominant classes (and in particular the agricultural elites). For this reason there was limited land reform and some clashes with environmental and indigenous groups, with the most infamous case being conflict over the expansion of extractive industry in Yasuní National Park.

Nelson puts the case succinctly: “The difficult relationship between the government and the social movements highlights the limits of pursuing an agenda of social transformation in the context of extractivism guided by a statist outlook” (67).

Nelson maintains that a similar situation took place in Bolivia. By accommodating the dominant classes of the Eastern Lowland agro-industrial sector, Evo Morales also succumbed to a largely extractivist agenda. By failing to expand its base through democratic mechanisms, the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) was unable to fortify its relation with social movements, and the state took on a techno-bureaucratic form. This led to capitulation on a number of important features of the constitutional reform process that culminated in 2009. Over the next four years, the government developed a public-private partnership that was formalized in the 2013 “Agenda Patriótica 2025.” This agenda ended up favoring the interests of the dominant classes. By failing to expand indigenous autonomy, Morales missed an opportunity to deepen democracy within and outside the state.

Nelson argues that the Bolivarian revolution in Venezuela did more to open spaces for organized expressions of popular power, both within and outside the state, than other Pink Tide governments. For this reason, “Chávez was able to repel opposition from dominant classes more forcefully than the AP and MAS” (74). So when the dominant classes tried to overthrow Chávez in 2002-2003 by means of a coup and then an oil strike, Chávez was able to prevail thanks to the popular mobilization that demanded his return. As a result of gaining control over the oil industry and security forces after the coup and oil strike, Chávez was able to launch social missions that brought free education, health care, and housing to formerly marginalized Venezuelans. Yet despite the gains brought about by the social missions, rentier capitalism has not been an optimal motor of socialist transformation. Notwithstanding efforts to empower democracy from below, Chavista governance has led to top-down statism. “The projects designed to democratize the Venezuelan state and society were undermined by the logic of rentierism by encouraging weak oversight by state personnel, corruption, and inefficiency” (75).

The essays that follow Chapter 3 employ the same theoretical framework and tightrope analogy to other Pink Tide governments and assess whether they did too much or too little to advance the socialist project, each in its own social, economic, and political context, and whether the government took advantage of propitious moments to make inroads against the dominant classes in order to bring about a measure of lasting structural change. What follows is a sampling of this very fruitful approach to the study of the Pink Tide.

Brazil

In Chapter 4, “The Rise and Fall of the Brazilian Workers Party (2002-2016),” Pedro Mendes Loureiro and Alfredo Saad-Filho argue that Lula da Silva was elected president in 2002 in the context of growing disenchantment with anemic growth, deindustrialization, and inequality imposed by the neoliberal economic model. Thanks to a boom in demand for primary goods, especially by China, and devaluation of the real (which gave a boost to exports) Lula delivered, for a time, an improved standard of living for millions of formerly marginalized Brazilians. As the authors point out, “Higher minimum wages and transfers, credit, fiscal activism, and booming exports sustained a circle of growth and distribution that drove an unprecedented reduction in poverty and inequality during the PT [Workers Party] administrations” (95).

These gains, however, were not structural in nature. Without a majority in Congress, the PT accommodated the dominant classes, and Lula, at the height of public approval, missed an opportunity to advance a socialist project. His pragmatic concessions to the dominant classes included allowing the exchange rate to float and making cuts in government spending. While raising the minimum wage, and social programs such as Bolsa Familia, did indeed improve the lot of the poor, the lion’s share of growth went to the top 1 percent, who held 25 percent of the national income.

The decline that began around 2010 coincided with the election of Dilma Rousseff, and by the time of her re-election in 2014, Brazil was facing a US$100 billion deficit. After Rousseff was re-elected in 2014, as Loureiro and Saad-Filho argue, the government responded to the economic crisis by adopting the very neoliberal measures she ran against: imposing austerity, cutting unemployment benefits, and cutting pensions. Yet all of this accommodation of the dominant classes did not bring about capital investment. Because of these pragmatic accommodations of the dominant classes, Rousseff and the PT were unable to mobilize in opposition to her impeachment. Loureiro and Saad-Filho conclude, “Instead of recognizing the limits of pragmatism, the PT chose to ignore them and stick to the path of least resistance in the economic, social, and political domains” (105). In 2016 Rousseff was removed from office in what the PT viewed as a parliamentary coup. On the tightrope of pragmatic accommodation versus advancing structural change, Loureiro and Saad-Filho conclude that Lula and then Rousseff did not do enough to promote change.

Uruguay

In “The Frente Amplio Governments in Uruguay: Policy Strategies and Results,” Nicolás Bentancur and José Miguel Busquets argue that the leftist party, Frente Amplio (FA), which ruled for three terms starting in 2005, advanced a hybrid form of governance that combined liberal democracy with a significant measure of participatory democracy. During the period of economic growth from 2005 to 2017, the governments of President Tabaré Vázquez and later José “Pepe” Mujica were able to achieve impressive reductions in poverty and economic inequality and progressive reform of social welfare programs. Beginning with the economic slowdown in 2016, however, the FA faced an erosion of popular support and serious challenges from the right. What, according to Bentancur and Busquets, went wrong?

The democratic participation of broad sectors of civil society in deliberations that impacted legislation on important social issues constituted what the authors call a “hybrid” form of governance. The authors give a detailed account of the education policy debate in 2006. This debate led to a national conference during which consensus recommendations were hammered out for consideration by the legislature. Although the recommendations were only partially adopted, the input of various stakeholders gave the education reform a degree of legitimacy.

On the labor front, the wage councils included representatives from labor, business, and government. The councils played a key role in negotiating wages and other labor issues. Once again, such deliberations led to recommendations that were promulgated into collective bargaining laws in 2009. The authors indicate that “wage councils fostered an increase in real wages by 52 percent between 2005 and 2014” (118).

And in still another area of public concern, the reforms in social security policy had the benefit of a broad-based national dialogue, and agreements reached by the dialogue were reflected in legislation impacting the social security system. An advisory council for change was set up, and participants included labor, business, civil society, and public sector representation. The council had input on reforms of the Health Care Services Administration.

In each of these cases, broad-based deliberation had an impact on legislation. Bentancur and Busquets point out that although the civic-state partnerships were forms of democratic inclusion of civil society in determining public policy, they did not include macroeconomic and tax policy deliberations, which remained largely at higher levels of governance.

Here is where the tightrope analogy becomes useful. “On several occasions the Frente Amplio had to choose between making commitments to civil society actors and reaching political agreements with opposition politicians” (125). The authors maintain that during the first two FA terms (2005-2015), the government, to a large degree, opted for the former, but without provoking destabilization efforts by the opposition. But beginning with the third FA term in 2015, a conservative offensive brought charges of corruption and mismanagement against the government. An economic downturn in 2016 brought pressure on the government to reduce public spending as well as taxes. By 2018 the opposition had formed a coalition, Un Solo Uruguay, that would soon pose a challenge to FA governance in the next election.

Bentancur and Busquets conclude that the hybrid liberal democratic model that combines participation from below on social welfare matters with a more vertical form of decision making from above on macroeconomic issues brought significant gains in poverty reduction and reform of public services, but it fell short in challenging macroeconomic policy. In order to bring about more income equality, “it would be necessary to apply participatory mechanisms to other policy areas, such as macroeconomics and tax legislation, and to broaden the scope of debate to include objectives and priorities” (130). On the tightrope of pragmatism versus structural change, the authors suggest that while FA made great strides in democratic participation, by limiting the field of deliberation to social welfare policy, FA did not do enough.

Venezuela

Part III of the reader includes an introduction and three essays on the more radical Pink Tide governments. Steve Ellner, in “Class Strategies in Chavista Venezuela: Pragmatic and Populist Policies in a Broader Context,” gives a clear illustration of the theoretical framework employed by other essays in this part. Hugo Chávez was elected president of Venezuela on the heels of widespread disillusionment with the neoliberal regime and the domination of elite parties (PuntoFijismo), which had relegated the majority of Venezuelans to poverty for four decades. Chávez ran on a platform that promised to “pay the social debt,” assert control over the nation’s natural resources, and promote national independence.

Ellner provides a detailed account of challenges to Chávez’s social project by the business sector and the pressure to deliver on paying the social debt by the popular sectors. In December 2001, in response to reforms derived from the new constitution of 1999 and Chávez’s plans to reform the oil sector, Fedecámaras (the Venezuelan Chambers of Commerce) organized protests that led to a short-lived coup in April 2002, followed by a strike against the oil sector later that year and into early 2003. In the aftermath of these attempts at regime change, Chávez took pragmatic measures to accommodate certain “productive” business sectors while shunning those that had participated in the Fedecámaras protests and strike. He also began the missions—social programs in health, education, and housing—to meet popular demands for a better quality of life.

Ellner points out that some critics of Chávez’s pragmatism charge that favor given to certain business sectors over others led to the creation of a corrupt class that took advantage of government contracts and favorable exchange rates to enrich themselves. And other critics, this time of the social missions, took issue with the clientelism, corruption, inefficiency, and bureaucratism that afflicted the programs.

A more nuanced approach, argues Ellner, would consider the pragmatic and populist measures in their political context. In order to counter the attempts by the opposition to bring about regime change, it was necessary to bring some of the business sector, if not to the side of Chavismo, then at least to some form of coexistence. In the case of the missions and government support for communes and cooperatives, the government was able to mobilize the popular sectors to its defense when under attack by the opposition.

Ellner defends, to a certain degree, the pragmatic approach to business because it allowed the Chavista project to blunt the attacks by the opposition bent on regime change. And he also rejects characterizing the missions and government support for organized expressions of popular power as crass populism because, he argues, they had a lasting impact on building democratic participation and alleviating poverty.

Ellner maintains that timing, that is, seizing moments when the balance of forces are favorable to the government, provided opportunities to address the shortcomings in both pragmatic accommodation of the business sector and populist measures directed at the working class. Chávez had such opportunities in the 2000s and took advantage of them by nationalizing basic industries, expropriating companies that ceased operations, and prosecuting some corrupt businesspeople. He could have done more, however, to go beyond social programs and take measures to reform the exchange system and stimulate productivity.

Maduro also had opportune moments in 2013 (with Chavista victories in the municipal elections), after the defeat of the guarimbas4 in 2014, after the elections for a National Constituent Assembly in 2017, and again in May 2018 with his re-election. During each of these opportunities to address the shortcoming of pragmatism and populism, Maduro failed to take decisive action. Ellner sums up the crucial issue of timing and context:

Timing as a strategic tool was the key to overcoming the negative effects of pragmatic and populist measures. Victories provided the government opportunities to advance in the achievement of five basic objectives: deepening of the process of change (objective one); weakening of the disloyal opposition (objective two); renovation of the Chavista movement and government through measures in favor of internal democratization and against bureaucratization and corruption (objective three); prioritization of economic goals … (objective four); and implementing unpopular policies (such as gasoline price hikes) in order to eliminate or minimize the negative effects of certain practices associated with populism (objective five). (181-82)

Ellner provides us with the theoretical tools to make a fair-minded assessment of Chavismo in Venezuela. Chávez had gone further than other Pink Tide governments in promoting the political participation of marginalized sectors in both the government missions and the more autonomous community councils and other organized expressions of popular power. By building alliances with the business sector and building popular support, the government has been able to ward off the relentless attack by the U.S.-backed hard-line opposition. But by not doing enough in favorable moments to crack down on corruption, address economic problems, and democratize government institutions, Maduro makes it more difficult to face these issues in times when the government is under frontal attack.

Nicaragua

In a reader that is critical, nuanced, and fair-minded, the essay on Nicaragua stands out, in my opinion, as somewhat one-sided. In “The Rise and Fall of Sandinista Alliances as a Means of Sociopolitical Change in Nicaragua,” Héctor M. Cruz-Feliciano employs the same theoretical framework, examining the use of pragmatic alliances as well as populist social projects by the Sandinistas after their electoral defeat in 1990 and in particular in the years leading up to the presidential elections of April 2018.

Cruz-Feliciano focuses on three important alliances. First, the FSLN (Frente Sandinista de Liberacion Nacional) reconciled with the Catholic Church. The new, pragmatic alliance with the church began in 2004 and led to “the passage of legislation criminalizing therapeutic abortion, [Cardinal Miguel] Obando’s designation as head of the Peace and Reconciliation Commission, and his recognition as National Hero of Peace and Reconciliation by the Sandinista-dominated National Assembly” (277). Ortega also forged an alliance with former contras, inviting former contra leader Jaime Morales Carazo to be his vice presidential candidate on the FSLN ticket, and assured the business sector of his belief in the market economy. The third alliance was with the business sector. Ortega’s vice presidential candidate helped the FSLN gain the support of the Superior Council of Private Enterprise. The proposed alliance, Cruz-Feliciano points out, was based on Ortega’s promise that poverty would be alleviated through policies that include private sector initiatives.

These pragmatic alliances, argues Cruz-Feliciano, were important to the FSLN electoral victories of 2006, 2011, and 2016 and were conducive to economic development:

Until April 2018, Ortega’s tenure was characterized by an increase in economic cooperation, growth in the number of state-supported social programs, and a sustained decrease in poverty levels. For a country that has for decades been one of the poorest in the hemisphere, these accomplishments are not to be taken lightly, since they help to explain the immense popularity of the FSLN and its growth with each election. (280)

Cruz-Feliciano maintains that these pragmatic alliances came into conflict with the FSLN’s expressed progressive agenda and curtailed participatory democracy. In some cases, the government used repression against dissent, such as the case of clashes between the Sandinistas and indigenous communities over the construction of the Grand Nicaraguan Interoceanic Canal project.

With regard to the attempted coup of April 2018, Cruz-Feliciano exceeds legitimate criticism of Ortega’s centralizing tendencies with a one-sided account of the events of that month. Claiming to be on “leftist” ground, he describes the anti-government protests as a legitimate response to the government’s brutal repression of peaceful demonstrators and suggests that as a result of this betrayal of constituents, the FSLN ought to find a new leader to replace Ortega to move forward.

Cruz-Feliciano further suggests that by 2018, the FSLN had lost its leftist way and was being challenged from the left. What he calls “most accounts” of the events that took place in April of that year are limited to anti-government perspectives; his own account conspicuously makes no mention of the U.S.-backed attempt to overthrow the elected government of President Ortega, the significant pro-government reaction, and the use of violence and murder by some sectors of the opposition.

Yorlis Gabriela Luna, in “The Other Nicaragua, Empire and Resistance,”5 gives a detailed alternative account of the demonstrations of April 2018, pointing out that not all anti-government violence was counter violence, but a significant dimension of those protests were motivated by a U.S.-backed right-wing attempt at regime change.

Cruz-Feliciano argues,

While by most accounts what ignited the popular uprising was the repression itself, many have observed that the repression served as a means of legitimating a massive demonstration of discontent with the government’s lack of policy coherence and the imposition of a governance model that gives the impression of being inclusive but does not actually provide the means for effective participation. (282)

Overreaction to protest is never excusable. But a balanced view would also take into account that during the protests and road blocks—in response to the fact that some Sandinistas or persons associated with Sandinismo were attacked and in some cases killed—there was also a “massive demonstration of discontent” by Nicaraguans who were determined to defend their neighborhoods from anti-government violence. Unfortunately, such demonstrations are not mentioned by Cruz-Feliciano.

It is interesting that Cruz-Feliciano argues that the Sandinstas did not do enough to advance structural changes, which would have involved policies “unsettling to the church, political associates, and business elites” (287). The Sandinistas, according to this argument, missed an opportunity prior to April 2018 to advance popular democratic participation at all levels of government. Cruz-Feliciano dismisses claims by the Sandinistas that some government critics of these very forces were involved in a coup attempt. “In much the same way that the government overreacted toward the civic protests, it attacked the business sector and the Catholic Church for allegedly being part of a plot to stage a ‘soft coup’” (286). For this reason, says Cruz-Feliciano, the FSLN ought to disassociate itself from Ortega and Murillo and return to its roots in order to recuperate its legitimacy. It is not clear, however, that the elected government has lost democratic legitimacy, though the events of April 2018 have indeed set the stage for a vigorous political contest, by means of democratic procedures, in the next presidential election scheduled for 2021.

The theoretical framework employed in Latin America’s Pink Tide is a valuable tool for understanding politics in the region. It provides lessons for future governance and helps us ask the right questions. For example, in Mexico, will Morena degenerate into an electoral machine or retain its roots in grassroots organizing? Is Lopez Obrador doing what is feasible, or is he failing to take advantage of his enormous popularity to bring about structural reforms? Can the FMLN in El Salvador renovate the party, reconnect with its base, and avoid the centralization that led, in part, to its electoral defeat? Can Alberto Fernandez avoid excessive pacts with the right? And will Nicolas Maduro be able to balance pragmatic negotiation with the moderate opposition with protecting the working class from the brutal and relentless assault by U.S. Monroeism? Each of these cases involves walking a tightrope, but one on which successful leaders will find the right balance between pragmatism and populism to continue advancing a progressive agenda.

Notes

1. A social philosophy of collective wellbeing that stresses harmonious community development and ecological balance.

2 Eduardo Gudynas, “Los progresismos sudamericanos: Ideas y prácticas, avances y límites,” in Rescatar la esperanza. Más allá del neoliberalismo y el progresismo (Barcelona: EntrePueblos, 2016), 40. Translation into English by Frederick Mills.

3. Massimo Modonesi, “Fin de la hegemonía progresista y giro regresivo en América Latina. Una contribución gramsciana al debate sobre el fin de ciclo,” in Viento Sur (Number 142, October 2015), 23-30.

4. Violent street barricades.

5. Council on Hemispheric Affairs, “The Other Nicaragua, Empire and Resistance,” Oct. 2, 2019.

Posted BoliviaBrazilCulture & HistoryEcuadorElectoral PoliticsLatin AmericaNicaraguaPolitical EconomySocialismUruguayVenezuela

About Author

Frederick B. Mills, PhD, is professor of philosophy at Bowie State University and co-director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Washington DC). He is author of Enrique Dussel’s Ethics of Liberation: An Introduction (Palgrave, 2018).


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