PERU’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RAISES HOPES
BEOYND PERU
by Steve Ellner
Canadian Dimension,
June 17, 2021
Peru's
long-standing polarity between a large extension of coastal region, where the
nation’s wealth is concentrated, and the much-neglected interior was on full
display in the June 6 presidential election. But the polarity was not just
geographical. It wasn't just that the winning candidate Pedro Castillo received
the lion's share of his votes from the interior, known as the "Other Peru."
Nor that Lima and other coastal cities favored Keiko Fujimori, particularly in
middle class districts. The election also pitted two candidates with very
dissimilar backgrounds against each other: Fujimori, a former First Lady
and three-time presidential candidate with the solid support of the nation’s elite,
against Castillo, who is the epitome of an outsider. Castillo, a primary school
teacher since the age of 25, has never held an elected office.
Castillo’s
platform included a second agrarian reform (the first was passed by a
nationalistic government in 1969), the possible nationalization of the nation’s
gas reserves (second in quantity in Latin America), creation of a state-owned
national airlines, and a constituent assembly to replace the constitution
promulgated under Fujimori’s father Alberto Fujimori in the 1990s. In contrast,
Keiko Fujimori, like her father, champions neoliberalism.
Castillo won
with a razor thin margin of less than half a percentage point. Following in
Trump's footsteps, Fujimori claimed fraud and demanded a recount of
approximately two hundred thousand votes, undoubtedly in order to save face and
rally her supporters.
A smear campaign against
Castillo for being an ally for Cuba, Russia and Venezuela as well as for terrorists
found an echo chamber in the nation’s mainstream media. Castillo was accused of
having ties with the Shining Path guerrillas, even though he had belonged to
the Rondas Campesinas, a rural civilian patrol group which vigorously and
effectively combatted the guerrilla group. Lima’s influential daily El
Comercio ran an investigative article replete with documents purporting to
show that a Shining Path front group had infiltrated Castillo’s union and the party
“Peru Libre” that backed him. The aim of the subversives was (in the words of
an ex-Minister of the Interior) “to find spaces to proceed with the only thing they know how to do: radical
politics.”
Castillo’s
status as an outsider is of utmost significance. Like Brazil's Lula and
Bolivia's Evo Morales, but unlike other Latin American left-leaning presidents
such as Ecuador's Rafael Correa, Argentina's Alberto Fernández and Mexico's
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Castillo emerged as a social movement leader and, most
important, as the head of a dissident teachers’ union. Castillo was thrust onto
the national stage in 2017 when he led an historic 70-day nation-wide teachers
strike, which attempted to halt school privatizations and rescind legislation
that submitted public teachers to obligatory performance reviews.
Fujimori’s unfounded
claims of fraud, like those of Trump in 2020, serve a hidden purpose. Fujimori’s
outcry of foul play undermines Castillo’s legitimacy as president and places
him on the defensive. This tactic didn’t work in the case of Trump because Biden
had a majority in congress and was as mainstream as you can get. Peru Libre, on
the other hand, has merely 37 of the 130 seats in congress. To make matters
worse, financial markets were shaken by Castillo’s triumph and Peru’s currency
the sol hit a historic low vis-à-vis the dollar.
Castillo also
faces threats from retired top military officers some who were aligned with
Fujimori’s father. The group includes 1970s dictator Francisco Morales Bermúdez
prosecuted and found guilty for forced disappearances in the framework of the
infamous Plan Condor. In a not so veiled threat against Castillo's supporters,
the retired officers called for strict measures against the “crime committed by the apologists of terrorism” who in the media and social
networks refuse to recognize Fujimori’s triumph.
Elites who are
resistant to change are also banking on a rift between Castillo and the Peru
Libre party. Castillo is not a member of Peru Libre, which calls itself
Marxist-Leninist as well as an adherent to the homegrown style of socialism of
1920s Communist ideologue José Carlos Mariátegui. Following the first round of
the presidential election held in April, Castillo moderated some positions and
distanced himself somewhat from the party. Thus he discarded the possibility of
widespread nationalization supported by some Peru Libre leaders, though not the
demand that mining multinationals pay the state 70 percent of their profits. He
also pledged to respect the autonomy of the Central Bank and ruled out exchange
controls.
AP and The
Economist predict that Castillo will have limited options. Foreign
Policy argued the same, at least for the short run, stating that the newly
elected president “will have to deal
with a fractured Congress eager to disrupt the path of any new legislation.” If Castillo ends up buckling under, he will
be following in the footsteps of military officer Ollanta Humala who was
elected president in 2011 as a staunch anti-neoliberal only to embrace
neoliberalism.
Indeed, there
is a sorry history of betrayals and turnabouts of this nature in Peru and Latin
America. Alberto Fujimori, originally an anti-neoliberal, went the same route after
defeating the renowned writer and neoliberal diehard Mario Vargas Llosa in the
1990 presidential elections. (Ironically, Vargas Llosa in the 2011 elections, was
to say “to choose between Keiko Fujimori and Humala is to choose between cancer and
AIDS.” For the 2021 elections, Vargas Llosa enthusiastically supported Keiko.)
Yet there is
reason to believe that Castillo will not betray the Peruvians of humble origin
who elected him. One favorable sign is the mobilization of tens of
thousands of his followers summoned by Indigenous and ronda campesina leaders to
defend his victory in the face of Fujimori's refusal to recognize defeat.
In another
encouraging sign, Veronica Mendoza who was the presidential candidate representing
the more traditional left in the first round in April as well as in the
previous 2016 presidential election, signed an agreement with Castillo in which
they committed themselves to “go beyond the economic model imposed by the [Alberto] Fujimori
dictatorship that has only favored the privileged few.”
One problem
area in the alliance between the two, however, is Castillo’s conservative
positions on social issues including reproductive rights, gay marriage and
immigration, which resemble Fujimori’s stands. Mendoza has diametrically
opposed positions on gender and LGBT issues, but has expressed faith that Castillo
is a “person of dialogue” who has indicated that he will submit the issue of abortion
to the will of the people in the form of a constituent assembly.
Another sign
that Castillo will remain on the left side of the political spectrum is the
Latin American response to Castillo's triumph in the face of Fujimori's demand
for a vote recount. In the first ten days after the elections, only progressive
“Pink Tide” governments and leaders including Argentine president Alberto
Fernández and former presidents José Pepe Mujica of Uruguay and Rafael Correa
of Ecuador publicly congratulated Castillo. So did the “Puebla Group” consisting
of 32 prominent political figures mostly on the left. One of its members,
ex-president Evo Morales, tweeted “on the basis of my personal experience, I suggest to compañero Castillo not
to trust the Organization of American States nor [its secretary general] Luis
Almagro.”
A broader look
at recent developments in Latin America provides an additional cause for
optimism. After facing a series of defeats beginning with the presidential
election in Argentina in 2015 and then Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment in Brazil,
the “Pink Tide” left and moderate left have made an impressive comeback,
beginning with the election of López Obrador in Mexico in 2018 and then electoral
triumphs in Argentina and Bolivia. To these electoral victories has to be added
the ability of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to hold onto power in spite of
crippling sanctions and Washington-supported destabilization against his
government. In addition, progressive candidates have a fair chance of emerging
triumphant in upcoming elections in Chile, Colombia, Brazil and Honduras.
Castillo’s election
is especially noteworthy because the “Group of Lima” with its seat in the
nation’s capital was an organization of hemispheric governments intent on
bringing about regime change in Venezuela. Peru Libre’s program calls the OAS an
“organism of geopolitical control” by the U.S. and praises the Community
of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and other similar organizational
initiatives for creating “a bloc that facilitates the resolution of our
regional conflicts on the basis of autonomy.”
Castillo’s
triumph is significant for another reason. Increased polarization in Latin
America has largely left Washington with the support only of right-wing and
largely repressive governments in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Honduras.
In contrast, Peru since the overthrow of Fujimori in 2000 tended to be more
centrist than rightist and at the same time aligned with the U.S. The new
political correlation throughout the region in which the pro-U.S. governments are
mostly right-wing calls for reflection in both Washington and Ottawa. More
specifically, both countries need to abandon regime change tactics and
hostility toward governments that refuse to tow the prescribed line. If such a
change in policy is not forthcoming, a consolidation of Latin American
progressive governments in the name of regional unity may leave the U.S. and
Canada on the sidelines.
Steve Ellner is
a retired professor of the Universidad de Oriente in Venezuela and currently an
Associate Managing Editor of Latin American Perspectives. He has
published over a dozen books on Latin American politics and history, his latest
being his edited Latin American Extractivism: Dependency, Resource
Nationalism and Resistance in Broad Perspective (Rowman and Littlefield,
2021). He has published on the Op-Ed page of the New York Times and the Los
Angeles Times.
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