WITH ITS MISGUIDED VENEZUELAN POLICY, WASHINGTON IS SHOOTING ITSELF IN THE FOOT

I published this short piece in the Inter-American Dialogue’s “Latin America Advisor” newsletter, in a forum on the prospects for the Venezuelan opposition. My piece deals with just one aspect of the total bankruptcy of U.S. policy toward Venezuela.

Juan Guaidó’s steady loss of support within the Venezuelan opposition is the result of repeated fiascos that demonstrated lack of political acumen: the coup attempt of April 30, 2019, the Operation Gideon invasion originating from Colombia, and the mishandling of Venezuelan companies in Colombia (Monómeros) and the U.S. (Citgo) turned over to his parallel government. His only remaining asset is Washington's recognition of him as president. Actually, ever since Guaidó's self-proclamation in January 2019, U.S. involvement in Venezuela on his behalf has only hurt the opposition.

Washington’s unconditional support for Guaidó ignored the fact that the main leader of his Voluntad Popular party, Leopoldo López, always had abrasive relations with other opposition parties, due to his alleged intransigence and impulsiveness. Indeed, López belonged to two of those parties – Primero Justicia y Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT)– but broke with them, or more accurately (at least in the case of UNT) was forced out.

In addition, with Guaidó’s failures, an emerging opposition sector rejected positions of the four main opposition parties grouped in the G-4. The new groups, best represented by Fuerza Vecinal which has scored impressive electoral victories, recognized the Maduro government, opposed electoral abstention, and favored pragmatic solutions over regime-change tactics, positions in line with the thinking of the opposition’s base. G-4 leaders have now publicly recognized their errors, but through their new grouping the Unitary Platform are attempting to maintain control of the entire opposition. Furthermore, Guaidó reportedly intends to compete in the primaries slated for June 2023 to choose the opposition’s united candidate for the 2024 presidential elections. Emerging opposition leaders voice distrust of the Platform which is calling the shots for the primaries. Washington’s continued recognition of Guaidó and its preference for the G-4 limits the possibility that the opposition can resolve its own problems without direct or indirect foreign interference.

 

Steve Ellner is a retired professor of the Universidad de Oriente in Venezuela and currently an Associate Managing Editor of Latin American Perspectives. His latest books are his edited Latin American Extractivism: Dependency, Resource Nationalism, and Resistance in Broad Perspectives (2021) and his co-edited Latin American Social Movements and Progressive Governments: Creative Tensions between Resistance and Convergence’s (2022).

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