The Divisions of the Venezuelan Opposition – Long Ignored by the Media – Have Now Come to the Fore

Today the “Latin America Advisor,” a newsletter of the centrist Washington think tank “Inter-American Dialogue” published a short piece by Steve Ellner which points out that for years the commercial media largely ignored the divisions in the Venezuelan opposition and the issues behind them. Now that an agreement has been reached between the Maduro government and opposition moderates, these divisions have come to the fore. He also points out that the opposition’s rank and file of all stripes is keenly aware that on five occasions, the opposition launched what they assured was “the final offensive” against Maduro. Now what these Venezuelans want is to concentrate on resolving pressing economic problems and not regime change:

Latin America Advisor

September 26, 2019
by Steve Ellner

The agreement reached between the Maduro government and anti-government moderates on September 16 demonstrates the degree to which the Venezuelan opposition is divided. The media for a long time ignored these internal differences, while Washington granted Juan Guaidó unconditional support, even though his Voluntad Popular party represents a relatively small and radical fringe of the opposition. The radicals have consistently opposed anything resembling “coexistence with the regime” and now (along with Washington, but not our European allies) insist that the only item up for negotiations is the terms under which Maduro will leave office. In contrast, opposition moderate Timoteo Zambrano has long supported focusing discussions on the revamping of the national electoral council and the release of political prisoners, two demands that were tentatively met on September 16. Another key negotiator on September 16, former presidential candidate Claudio Fermin, staunchly opposes the government’s statist economic policies, but criticizes Guaidó for supporting sanctions and military intervention and argues Venezuelans can resolve their conflicts without intervention by “external factors.” 

These latest developments were predictable given Guaidó’s erosion of active support, as shown by his loss of mobilization capacity, beginning with his failed general strike call in May. Many opposed to the government recall the five times the opposition has announced a “final offensive” against Maduro and, as Zambrano states, they would rather concentrate on pressing economic problems. Nevertheless, without support of non-radicals such as Acción Democrática party and two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, the moderates’ chances of success are limited. But the September 16 initiative is the only hope for beginning to ease the extreme polarization that has done much damage to Venezuela since the early years of Hugo Chávez’s rule.

Steve Ellner is a retired professor of the Universidad de Oriente in Venezuela and currently an Associate Managing Editor of Latin American Perspectives. His latest book is his edited Latin America’s Pink Tide: Breakthroughs and Shortcomings (2019).