Washington’s Hope to Impose a Submissive Government in Caracas

What happened this morning was a reaffirmation of Nietzsche’s “might makes right.” It’s not as if there was no resistance. In today’s news conference, the military officer stated that there was considerable resistance and that one helicopter was hit. But there were 200 U.S. planes operating from 20 bases involved in the operation. How could a country as small as Venezuela resist such a display of force. Trump and Rubio stated that Venezuela has to reimburse the U.S. for the “stolen oil.” Trump claimed that the U.S. built the oil installations and then it was taken from us. The narrative is plain: that Venezuelans or the Venezuelan governments are thieves and that today’s operation was just to recover stolen property. By that logic, the U.S. could have invaded Mexico in 1938 in response to the nationalization of the oil industry and other countries as well. But the fact is that a nation has the right to set its own policies, and furthermore the oil was never “confiscated” as Trump claims since both Carlos Andres Perez in 1976 and Chavez after that were set on paying indemnification. Furthermore, the claim that Maduro is a drug trafficker has no basis in fact. It’s been rejected by analysts across the political spectrum. Even some who favor the overthrow of Maduro state that the drug trafficking claim has no basis in fact but that Maduro should be removed because he is a dictator. But by that logic the U.S. should overthrow the government of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and so many non-democratic governments which are U.S. allies. In fact, the U.S. has always supported dictatorial regimes that are aligned with Washington, beginning with Franco in the 1950s when the government of Eisenhower built military bases in Spain.

 

The Trump administration is predictably doing everything possible to intimidate the Venezuelan government into accepting U.S. terms for a “transition” in Caracas. Trump states he does not rule out “boots on the ground” and insists that under no circumstances will the U.S accept the continuation of the Chavistas in power in Venezuela. But the fact is that the Chavista government has a significant base of support, and that the military up until now has remained loyal to Chávez and subsequently to Maduro, and that the opposition led by María Corina Machado (with her unconditional support for Trump and his policies on immigration, sanctions and the show of military force) has lost considerable support in Venezuela in the last year. Trump himself, in today's declaration to the press, recognizes that Machado is not popular in Venezuela. These factors together suggest that the U.S. will not be able to easily impose the type of government that Trump seeks.

 

Furthermore, Trump’s talk that Venezuela must reimburse the United States for the “stolen oil” – a stated objective of Washington’s actions against Venezuela – runs counter to Venezuelan nationalistic sentiment. In short, I do not anticipate that Trump will succeed in imposing on Venezuela a submissive government that is to the liking of Washington, as it did in Panama in 1989.