Venezuela Supreme Tribunal of Justice Delivers Juan Guaidó Another Blow

Latin America Advisor published by the Inter-American Dialogue

June 23, 2020

by Steve Ellner

The decision of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice to name all five members of the National Electoral Commission opens the door for the holding of elections for the National Assembly (AN) in December. Juan Guaidó will undoubtedly be replaced as the AN's president, thus undermining the legitimacy of Washington's strategy to achieve regime change in Venezuela. In one sense, the elections will be a repeat of the presidential elections of May 2018 which the "radical" opposition boycotted, unlike the “moderate” opposition. In another sense, however, the nation's political climate has changed significantly as many Venezuelans opposed to the government have become disillusioned with Guaidó as a result of a string of fiascos beginning with his self-proclamation as president on January 23, 2019. A major blow for Guaidó has been the surprising emergence of Claudio Fermín of the Mesa de Diálogo Nacional (MDN) and his recognition of Nicolás Maduro as the nation's legitimate president. Fermín, who has long been a conservative on economic policy, hits particularly hard against the “radical” opposition, labelling the call for abstention in the 2018 elections a “fraud” and ruling out alliances with any group that supports U.S.-imposed sanctions against Venezuela. The "radical" opposition has attempted to discredit the MDN by accusing its president Luis Parra of corrupt dealings, while the Trump administration has imposed sanctions on him. But Fermín's credentials of personal honesty are impeccable dating back to his term as Caracas' first elected mayor in the early 1990s, and thus the MDN cannot be passed off as a shady fringe group. In short, the Supreme Tribunal’s selections, a decision which the MDN hailed, signals a shift in the Venezuelan political environment with far-reaching international ramifications.