Washington pundits jump the gun on China-Venezuelan relations

U.S. pundits celebrate alleged signs that China is distancing itself from Venezuela. Certainly the U.S. draconian regime of secondary sanctions weighs heavily on Beijing’s decision-making. But the Chinese still support the Maduro government and firmly criticize the U.S. war of aggression against Venezuela. Today the Inter-American Dialogue’s “Latin America Advisor” published this piece of mine: 

Latin America Advisor published by the Inter-American Dialogue

by Steve Ellner
January 27, 2020

The Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement regarding the “slowing down” of cooperation ventures with Venezuela should not be surprising given the success of U.S. secondary sanctions in isolating that nation economically from the rest of the world. A year ago, for instance, the Russian bank Gazprombank announced it would halt transactions with the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, in spite of the close relations between Moscow and the Maduro government. Nevertheless, even though the Chinese government’s foreign investment decisions are guided by commercial criteria, Beijing leaders are far from apolitical when it comes to economic ties abroad. Indeed, the same statement by the Foreign Ministry noted that the “sanctions are the root cause behind the deterioration of the Venezuelan people’s daily lives” and went on to insist on the lifting of “unilateral sanctions against Venezuela.” The Chinese are well aware that the Trump administration’s discourse toward Latin America has been aggressively anti-Chinese – an attitude that has found a receptive ear in Brazil with Jair Bolsonaro -- and that their most reliable allies have been the “Pink Tide” governments including that of Venezuela.

Juan Guaidó’s efforts to block what he calls Venezuelan “blood gold” is based on a correct assessment of the importance that this source of revenue has assumed for the Venezuelan economy. What Guaidó doesn’t consider, however, is that his ongoing effort to topple Maduro with foreign help has backfired. Many Venezuelans resent such blatant U.S. interference. This is one reason why Guaidó’s popularity has declined precipitously and why a new group of opposition “dissidents” have emerged who favor negotiations with the government to solve immediate problems rather than harping on regime change.

Steve Ellner, associate managing editor of Latin American Perspectives and editor of Latin America’s Pink Tide: Breakthroughs and Shortcomings (2020).